Songfacts®:

• "Coincidence" is a song that plunges into the emotional whirlpool of suspecting that your romantic partner might still be somewhat entangled with an ex. Sabrina Carpenter senses her boyfriend's still-simmering connection to his former flame, who, wouldn't you know it, has the uncanny knack for showing up at precisely the wrong moments.
• "Coincidence" is the fifth track on Carpenter's sixth album, Short n' Sweet. It picks up where the previous song, "Sharpest Tool," left off - right in the thick of a lyrical melee where Carpenter gleefully skewers her ex for his commitment issues. In this song she suggests it's "just a coincidence" how he always seems to find himself in the company of other girls. You can almost hear the air quotes around "coincidence."
• Of course, no pop song these days is complete without a swirl of rumors and fan theories, and "Coincidence" does not disappoint. The buzz around this track is that it draws inspiration from Carpenter's rumored fling with Shawn Mendes. Let's run down the evidence, shall we?
  
  1) There were reports linking Carpenter and Mendes romantically in early 2023. Then, as if on cue, Mendes was seen rekindling things with his ex, Camila Cabello, which fits neatly with the song's narrative of an ex-girlfriend suddenly making a comeback.
  
  2) Some lyrics seem to reference events that match the timeline, such as:
  
  Your car drove itself from LA to her thighs
  Palm Springs looks nice, but who's by your side?
  
  This lyrical snippet might just be alluding to Mendes and Cabello being spotted at Coachella - conveniently near Palm Springs - in April 2023. Quite the "coincidence," wouldn't you say?
  
  Then, as if to hammer the point home, Carpenter closes the song with a punchy:
  
  Oh, wow, you just broke up again
  What a coincidence
  
  A possible reference, some speculate, to Mendes and Cabello's brief reunion and subsequent breakup in June 2023.
  
  3) And let's not forget, "Coincidence" is not an isolated incident. Fans are convinced that other tracks on Short n' Sweet, such as "Taste" and "Sharpest Tool," are part of the same saga, all chronicling Carpenter's rumored relationship with Mendes and its rather messy fallout.
• Sabrina Carpenter wrote "Coincidence" with Amy Allen, Julia Michaels, John Ryan, and Ian Kirkpatrick. The same crew had their hands on other tracks from Short n' Sweet, such as "Taste" and "Bed Chem."
• Ryan and Kirkpatrick's production on "Coincidence" gives it a playful, upbeat tempo, complete with brash guitar strums and a "na-na-na" post-chorus that feels perfect for a campfire sing-along.